Since so many of you are concerned about the next primary, I’ll try to engage and enlighten you about the current situation in Pennsylvania and offer my final update to the Delegate Tracker before it is thrown into it’s typical post-primary turmoil.
In short, Obama is hitting hard and Clinton is reeling. Judging simply by ad-buys, Obama is staking his candidacy on the results from Pennsylvania while Hillary is still stuck defending her missteps. Polls are getting closer and there is not very much the trapped-in-the-weeds New York senator can do about it.
Though she is far from giving in. Attempting to compete in the numbers game, five new Clinton ads are up, in an attempt to mitigate the effects of four new Obama spots. Unfortunately for her, she is not competing with the right numbers. Obama is set to break all spending records in Pennsylvania and it’s his money that is going to get him the exposure he needs. “Nobody has ever spent 2.2 million in this state: not Rendell, not Specter, not Casey, not Santorum, not Bush, not Kerry,” Democratic media consultant Neil Oxman tells The Boston Globe’s Sasha Issenberg.
By all accounts, the shear volume of Clinton ads are no match for the buying power that Obama has given himself. With such a large war chest, Obama is making his splash during expensive prime-time slots – increasing his reach and the power of his message. With only one fewer ad than Clinton, Obama has virtually vaporized the impact Clinton’s commercials might have any claim to.
If past successes are any measure, Clinton needs to make sure that the ads that she is buying (though in the lesser-known time slots) are that much more impressive. She has backed herself against another wall in the Keystone state and her media advisers are most likely chomping at the bit to take another ‘Red Phone’ swipe at Obama. Poignancy might be the only thing that she has left on her side. And if used effectively (just like in Texas) it could open her lead back up in the polls.
We should make no mistake over the next two weeks – Clinton is making her last stand in PA. Her campaign knows it. I know it. Now you know it. But the most interesting part about this is that Mr. Obama knows it. For that reason alone, I’m going to say that this will get ugly. I don’t know when, but it will. Count on it.
