The race for delegates and superdelgates is running at full steam and it’s making Super Tuesday the most anticipated day in presidential politics in over 20 years.
With 22 states holding Democratic primaries and 21 states holding Republican contests, February 5th not only offers a unique national perspective on the race before the November General Election, but candidates for both parties are also engaged in a pitched battle to secure as many delegates as possible on a day that offers potentially 2,075 delegates for Democrats and 1,081 for Republicans.
Let’s look at the Democratic race first. The Dems award their delegates on a proportional basis and it is because of this quirk in their rules that we may have an even tighter race for the nomination after the polls close on the 5th.
For instance, if Obama sweeps 20 out of the 22 states, it still does not knock Hillary out of the race (and vice versa, of course). Let’s say Obama were to gather 51% of the vote in any state, besting a Hillary 49%. Though she does not come in first place, Senator Clinton will still pick up a large share of the delegates. Proportional awards guarantee that both candidates split the delegates according to how well they do percentage-wise.
Each candidate knows that even if they can’t win a state’s primary, they must be competitive in every one. A second place finish still matters, especially if it’s close.
“It’s all about the delegates!” Mr. Obama said the other day, shouting his words to a crowd of supporters. His itinerary this week includes a visit to California but also to smaller states that his aides said offered opportunities for picking up delegates, whether or not he can win the state itself: Arizona, Kansas, Missouri and New Mexico.” Adam Nagourney writes in The New York Times
The good news for Obama, Clinton and (arguably) Edwards is that Super Tuesday isn’t win-or-go-home. A candidate must get 2,025 total delegates to clinch the nomination; in all likelihood, we’ll see half of the 2,075 up for grabs on Tuesday go to Clinton, and the other half go to Obama. They will both need to grab another 900 or so delegates until one can be crowned the winner.
Super Tuesday puts the inevitable within closer reach, but will not be the capstone to the primary season. We’re going to see this battle continue to different theaters.
On the Republican side, 1,081 delegates are up for grabs and, according to Real Clear Politics, eight of the states award their delegates on a winner-take-all basis. This means that if one candidate picks up all of these states, they will get a large chunk of the delegates that they need to close in on the nomination.
If only McCain or Romney could be so lucky. The rest of the 13 states voting in Republican primaries on Super Tuesday are awarded proportionally, and they are all going to be hotly contested races.
(You can take a look at the Republican and Democratic Primary Calendars as well as my Republican and Democratic Delegate and Superdelegate trackers to get a more detailed view of what states will be voting and what the horse race looks like so far.)
So with all of these arcane rules and over 20 different states voting on the 5th, why is Super Tuesday so important?
Candidates are quickly running out of money. At the beginning of the primary season (approximately a year ago) the ‘money primary’ was an early indicator of a candidates strength. The more that a candidate raised, the more that he or she seemed viable. While this may seem unfair to an excellent candidate who may not have the fund raising power as Hillary Clinton, in American politics, money has always equaled votes.
Matthew Mosk wrote in the Washington Post that
There is now a very unique phenomenon in this political race – money is running low just when candidates need it the most. It will be a real test of a candidate’s appeal to the average voter.
Furthermore, this is not a high pressure day for voters. With so many states voting, and many states not getting
a visit from each of the candidates to remind them to vote, turnout may be low. This means that organization and getting out hardcore supporters to the polls is of paramount concern to any campaign. It will test their ability to organize, their strength on the ground and their overall likeability. In essence, candidates from both parties are really turning the screws on their organizations and the best ground operation will eventually prevail.
Lastly, Democratic voters, much like in 2004, are going to start looking for the most ‘electable’ candidate. Clinton and Obama are both fantastic options, but sooner or later, the calculus for party regulars will change. Primary voters will start asking themselves who best can win the General Election, and it will enter into their consideration starting February 5th and continue into the primaries afterwards.
For the Republicans, it’s all about what Mitt Romney is going to do with that pile of cash he has stashed away in his interest bearing accounts. I’ve written earlier on the Romney phenomenon and it still holds true. McCain is hampered by a fund raising machine that is slowly losing steam. He has spent much (if not all) of his money in the earlier primaries and does not have a lot of money to run the full fledged air war of commercials one normally would at this important point in the campaign. If Romney picks up half of the states, the Republicans are dragging this fight out as well.
So get your popcorn ready. From the seizure-inducing graphics on CNN and Fox, to the squealings of Chris Matthews on MSNBC, the nation-wide coverage on February 5th will be just as exciting as the beginning of 2008, only with more at stake. We might not have a clear winner, but this one is going to be the biggest thing we’ll have until November.
(related post: Delegates and Superdelegates Explained)
