The Connecticut Primary: A Voter’s Guide for Super Tuesday

The State of Connecticut votes this year on Super Tuesday, February 5^th in what is called a ‘closed primary’. I’ve noticed that my previous posts on other state primaries have been extremely useful for readers, so I’d like to duplicate this for residents throughout the country. Each post is assembled on the Voter’s Guide page for your future reference.

Connecticut residents are facing perhaps the most important presidential primary they have ever voted in. The nominations have never been so in flux in nearly a generation. Both parties do not have a clear winner, and each campaign is shifting their focus to a long term outlook. In fact, we might see both the Democrats and Republicans fighting this one out until the summer.

2008 therefore is no longer about Iowa and New Hampshire. It’s about Super Tuesday and the states that follow. And Connecticut sits in a position of power to determine who the nominee may eventually be.

In light of this, I feel it is necessary to share a quick history and voter’s guide to the most salient questions I’ve been asked about Connecticut and Super Tuesday. A political professional for nearly 10 years, I hope that this guide helps to answer all of your questions. If you have further ones, feel free to leave a comment.

Can I vote in the Connecticut Primary?

Only if you are a registered to vote prior to Thursday, January 31st or if you show up in person to register by February 4th 2008 at your town hall.

Can Independents vote in the Connecticut Primary?

No.

Why can’t Independents vote in the Connecticut Primary?

The State of Connecticut votes in what is known as a ‘closed primary’. This means that only those voters who have officially declared their membership in the Republican or Democratic parties may participate.

Closed primaries are a unique example of a political party’s interest in keeping active participation in the party going strong.

Unfortunately, this type of primary traditionally has lower turnout since only those who are officially declared as a member of a party are permitted to vote. Furthermore, many Independents find this system to be a disincentive to pay attention to the primary elections and therefore pay little mind to the race until the General Election.

Does the Connecticut Primary matter?

Despite Independent voters being barred from participating, the Connecticut Primary still matters a great deal to the overall 2008 Election. When a presidential primary comes to a state like Connecticut and the voting can still determine the outcome, it is a rare opportunity for voters to have their voices heard nationally.

If you are a Democrat, your vote will contribute to your candidate’s delegate total when it comes to convention time. Even if your candidate doesn’t win Connecticut, the better he or she does, the more delegates he or she will have to potentially be the nominee.

If you are a Republican, let’s face it, your vote is probably even more important in determining your party’s nominee. This race is still completely up for grabs. After February 5th is done and your vote is counted, we might see someone claim the mantle of frontrunner (see my other post on Why Super Tuesday Is So Important)

What resources are out there for me?

I’m afraid that not many will go this length in explaining the logic of our primary system to you, but I will point you in the right direction for better details on what to expect on Election Day.

Connecticut Secretary of State’s Office

What’s Next?

Check back here for updates and bookmark the above pages. And be sure to leave a comment if you have any questions.

The Colorado Caucus: A Voter’s Guide for Super Tuesday

The State of Colorado votes this year on Super Tuesday, February 5^th in what is called a caucus or a ‘closed primary’. I’ve noticed that my previous posts on other state primaries have been extremely useful for readers, so I’d like to duplicate this for residents throughout the country. Each post is assembled on the Voter’s Guide page for your future reference. I have used liberally from Common Cause Colorado as well, who have a spectacular page of information in this as well.

Colorado residents are facing perhaps the most important presidential caucuses they have ever voted in. The nominations have never been so in flux in nearly a generation. Both parties do not have a clear winner, and each campaign is shifting their focus to a long term outlook. In fact, we might see both the Democrats and Republicans fighting this one out until the summer.

2008 therefore is no longer about Iowa and New Hampshire. It’s about Super Tuesday and the states that follow. And Colorado sits in a position of power to determine who the nominee may eventually be.

In light of this, I feel it is necessary to share a quick history and voter’s guide to the most salient questions I’ve been asked about Colorado and Super Tuesday. A political professional for nearly 10 years, I hope that this guide helps to answer all of your questions. If you have further ones, feel free to leave a comment.

Can I vote in the Colorado Caucus?

Only if you are a registered to vote prior to Monday, January 7th and are a declared member of either the Democratic or Republican party. At the time of this writing it looks like the deadline has passed for all of you who have not yet registered. Sorry kids.

Can Independents vote in the Colorado Caucus?

No.

Why can’t Independents vote in the Colorado Caucus?

The State of Colorado votes in what is known as a closed primary or caucus. This means that only those voters who have officially declared their membership in the Republican or Democratic parties may participate.

Closed primaries or caucuses are a unique example of a political party’s interest in keeping active participation in the party going strong.

Unfortunately, this type of primary traditionally has lower turnout since only those who are officially declared as a member of a party are permitted to vote. Furthermore, many Independents find this system to be a disincentive to pay attention to the primary elections and therefore pay little mind to the race until the General Election.

What is a caucus?

Caucuses are local meetings conducted by the Democratic and Republican parties held in precincts throughout the state. At the caucus, voters are divided into groups according to the candidate they support. The undecided voters congregate into their own group and prepare to be “counted” by supporters of other candidates. Voters in each group can then give speeches supporting their candidate and try to persuade others to join their group. At the end of the caucus, party organizers count the voters in each candidate’s group and calculate how many delegates to the county convention each candidate has won. This is the first step in a multi-step process to elect delegates to represent Colorado at the national convention.

The caucus has three main functions:

1. To elect Delegates/Alternates to the County Assembly and Convention

2. To elect two precinct committee people for 2-year terms and;

3. To vote on proposed platform issues

Do we also have a primary in Colorado? If so, what is the difference between the caucus and the primary?

Yes. In Colorado we use both the caucus and primary systems.

A caucus is where party members get together in their precincts to pledge their support for a favorite presidential candidate. Delegates are then awarded to the candidates based on the votes taken at the caucuses. The delegates then attend county assemblies and the state convention to vote on the party platform and “carry” the votes from their precinct. The state convention then awards delegates based on the results from the state as a whole.

The Colorado primary is for state-level and congressional offices only. A primary is simply an election that allows registered voters (with a specific party) to go to the polls and cast their ballot for a candidate. In Colorado, our primaries are closed, which means you must be a member of the party to vote for that party’s candidate.

The caucuses and the primaries finally culminate in a national convention in which the party’s nomination for president is formally announced. During the conventions, the elected delegates cast their vote for a party candidate and the candidate with the most delegates gets the party’s nomination. The end of the convention marks the beginning of the general election season.

Does the Colorado Caucus matter?

Despite Independent voters being barred from participating, the Colorado Caucus still matters a great deal to the overall 2008 Election. When a presidential primary comes to a state like Colorado and the voting can still determine the outcome, it is a rare opportunity for voters to have their voices heard nationally.

If you are a Democrat, your vote will contribute to your candidate’s delegate total when it comes to convention time. Even if your candidate doesn’t win Colorado, the better he or she does, the more delegates he or she will have to potentially be the nominee.

If you are a Republican, let’s face it, your vote is probably even more important in determining your party’s nominee. This race is still completely up for grabs. After February 5th is done and your vote is counted, we might see someone claim the mantle of frontrunner (see my other post on Why Super Tuesday Is So Important)

What resources are out there for me?

I’m afraid that not many will go this length in explaining the logic of our primary system to you, but I will point you in the right direction for better details on what to expect on Election Day.

Colorado Secretary of State’s Office

Where is my caucus held?

Typically caucuses are held in local public places. Contact the party you are affiliated with to find out where your caucus is being held. The Colorado caucus will be held on February 5, 2008.

www.coloradodems.org – Colorado Democratic Party

www.cologop.org – Colorado Republican Party

What’s Next?

Check back here for updates and bookmark the above pages. And be sure to leave a comment if you have any questions.

Delegate Trackers Updated

After South Carolina, most of the media outlets still have the delegate count at some widely different margins. On the GOP side however, it’s all coming together. After Super Tuesday, I’ll winnow the Democratic field down to just two candidates (given that Edwards is dropping out today) and I’ll look to only one or two sources for the GOP tracker. Enjoy.

The Arkansas Primary: A Voter’s Guide for Super Tuesday

The State of Arkansas votes this year on Super Tuesday, February 5^th in what is called an ‘open primary’. All those who are registered to vote in Arkansas may vote in the presidential primary, regardless of party affiliation. I will do my best to outline some of the details of this election system for you.

But first, I’d like to say that Arkansas residents are facing perhaps the most important presidential primary they have ever voted in. The nominations have never been so in flux in nearly a generation. Both parties do not have a clear winner, and each campaign is shifting their focus to a long term outlook. In fact, we might see both the Democrats and Republicans fighting this one out until the summer.

2008 therefore is no longer about Iowa and New Hampshire. It’s about Super Tuesday and the states that follow. And Arkansas sits in a position of power to determine who the nominee may eventually be.

In light of this, let me share a quick history and voter’s guide to the most salient questions I’ve been asked about Arkansas and Super Tuesday. A political professional for nearly 10 years, I hope that this guide helps to answer all of your questions. If you have further ones, feel free to leave a comment.

Can I vote in the Arkansas Primary?

Only if you are a registered to vote prior to Monday, January 7th. At the time of this writing it looks like the deadline has passed for all of you who have not yet registered.

Can Independents vote in the Arkansas Primary?

Yes. When you go to the polls, you will be asked which ballot you want. You many only vote either the Democratic or Republican Primary, not both. If you are a registered Democrat or Republican you also have the option of voting in either party’s primary, but again, not both.

Why can Independents vote in the Arkansas Primary? And why can Democrats vote in the Republican Primary and vice versa?

The State of Arkansas votes in what is known as an ‘open primary’. This means that as long as you have registered to vote in time, you will be allowed to choose whether you want a Republican or Democratic ballot.

Open primaries are somewhat unique. They allow any resident to pick up a ballot and cast a vote for whomever they wish, regardless of their personal party affiliation. Much like the General Election, you are free to choose who you want.

Many Independents find this system to be geared favorably towards them and typically more moderate politicians fare well in an open primary. Open primaries traditionally have better turnout since more people feel comfortable voting that day since they don’t have to officially declare that they belong to a party.

Interestingly, some voters are skeptical of this system. When Democrats are allowed to vote in a Republican primary (and vice versa) many feel that this may cause some form of impropriety. While this may be the case, the party’s allow open primaries because they feel the risk of an overwhelming amount of cross-over voting is significantly low. Though some might choose to cross-over and vote in another party’s primary to skew the vote, there is minimal (if any) danger that it will negatively affect the outcome.

Does the Arkansas Primary matter?

With the Mike Huckabee undertone of this election put aside, I can confidently say that the primary matters a great deal. When a presidential primary comes to a state like Arkansas and the voting will still determine the outcome, it is a rare opportunity for voters to have their voices heard nationally.

If you are a Democrat, your vote will contribute to your candidate’s delegate total when it comes to convention time. Even if your candidate doesn’t win Arkansas, the better he or she does, the more delegates he or she will have to potentially be the nominee.

If you are a Republican, let’s face it, your vote is probably even more important in determining your party’s nominee. This race is still completely up for grabs. After February 5th is done and your vote is counted, we might see someone claim the mantle of frontrunner.

If you’re an Independent voter, you should feel equally enamored. Independents are widely known to be the heartbeat of the voting public whose opinions are frequently the basis for the ‘mandate’ that new presidents talk about during their first days. There should be no doubt that the candidates want your vote more than anything else. If you help in choosing either of the nominees, you’ll help shape the next 4 years of public policy. (see my other post on Why Super Tuesday Is So Important)

What resources are out there for me?

I’m afraid that not many will go this length in explaining the logic of our primary system to you, but I will point you in the right direction for better details on what to expect on Election Day.

Arkansas Secretary of State’s Office

What’s Next?

Check back here for updates and bookmark the above pages. And be sure to leave a comment if you have any questions.

The Arizona Primary: A Voter’s Guide for Super Tuesday

The State of Arizona votes this year on Super Tuesday, February 5^th in what is called a ‘closed primary’. I’ve noticed that my previous post on other state primaries have been extremely useful for readers, so I’d like to duplicate this for residents throughout the country. Each post is assembled on the Voter’s Guide page for your future reference.

The backdrop of Senator McCain’s historic run for president aside, Arizona residents are facing perhaps the most important presidential primary they have ever voted in. The nominations have never been so in flux in nearly a generation. Both parties do not have a clear winner, and each campaign is shifting their focus to a long term outlook. In fact, we might see both the Democrats and Republicans fighting this one out until the summer.

2008 therefore is no longer about Iowa and New Hampshire. It’s about Super Tuesday and the states that follow. And Arizona sits in a position of power to determine who the nominee may eventually be.

In light of this, I feel it is necessary to share a quick history and voter’s guide to the most salient questions I’ve been asked about Arizona and Super Tuesday. A political professional for nearly 10 years, I hope that this guide helps to answer all of your questions. If you have further ones, feel free to leave a comment.

Can I vote in the Arizona Primary?

Only if you are a registered to vote prior to Monday, January 7th and are a declared member of either the Democratic or Republican party. At the time of this writing it looks like the deadline has passed for all of you who have not yet registered. Sorry kids.

Can Independents vote in the Arizona Primary?

No.

Why can’t Independents vote in the Arizona Primary?

The State of Arizona votes in what is known as a ‘closed primary’. This means that only those voters who have officially declared their membership in the Republican or Democratic parties may participate.

Closed primaries are a unique example of a political party’s interest in keeping active participation in the party going strong.

Unfortunately, this type of primary traditionally has lower turnout since only those who are officially declared as a member of a party are permitted to vote. Furthermore, many Independents find this system to be a disincentive to pay attention to the primary elections and therefore pay little mind to the race until the General Election.

Does the Arizona Primary matter?

Despite Independent voters being barred from participating, the Arizona Primary still matters a great deal to the overall 2008 Election. When a presidential primary comes to a state like Arizona and the voting can still determine the outcome, it is a rare opportunity for voters to have their voices heard nationally.

If you are a Democrat, your vote will contribute to your candidate’s delegate total when it comes to convention time. Even if your candidate doesn’t win Arizona, the better he or she does, the more delegates he or she will have to potentially be the nominee.

If you are a Republican, let’s face it, your vote is probably even more important in determining your party’s nominee. This race is still completely up for grabs. After February 5th is done and your vote is counted, we might see someone claim the mantle of frontrunner (see my other post on Why Super Tuesday Is So Important)

What resources are out there for me?

I’m afraid that not many will go this length in explaining the logic of our primary system to you, but I will point you in the right direction for better details on what to expect on Election Day.

Arizona Secretary of State’s Office

What’s Next?

Check back here for updates and bookmark the above pages. And be sure to leave a comment if you have any questions.

The Alaska Primary: A Voter’s Guide for Super Tuesday

The State of Alaska votes this year on Super Tuesday, February 5^th in what is called an ‘open primary’ for Democrats and a ‘closed primary’ for Republicans. Alaska is very unique when it comes to voting in Presidential Primaries. In fact, they have what is called a ‘Blanket Primary’ for many of the parties registered in Alaska (Democrats, Libertarian, Independence and members of a Limited Political Party). I will try my best to unravel some of the meanings behind these terms for you.

But first, I’d like to say that Alaska residents are facing perhaps the most important presidential primary they have ever voted in. The nominations have never been so in flux in nearly a generation. Both parties do not have a clear winner, and each campaign is shifting their focus to a long term outlook. In fact, we might see both the Democrats and Republicans fighting this one out until the summer.

2008 therefore is no longer about Iowa and New Hampshire. It’s about Super Tuesday and the states that follow. And Alaska sits in a position of power to determine who the nominee may eventually be.

In light of this, let me share a quick history and voter’s guide to the most salient questions I’ve been asked about Alaska and Super Tuesday. A political professional for nearly 10 years, I hope that this guide helps to answer all of your questions. If you have further ones, feel free to leave a comment.

Can I vote in the Alaska Primary?

Only if you are a registered to vote prior to Tuesday, January 7th. At the time of this writing it looks like the deadline has passed for all of you who have not yet registered. Sorry kids.

Can Independents vote in the Alaska Primary?

Yes, but not in the Republican primary. When you go to the polls, you will be asked which ballot you want. You may in vote the Democratic primary, Libertarian Primary an Independence primary.

Why can Independents vote in the Alaska Primary? Why can they not vote in the Alaska Republican Primary?

The State of Alaska votes in what is known as an ‘open primary’ for Democrats, Libertarian and Independence Party members. This means that as long as you have registered to vote in time, you will be allowed to choose whether you want any of these ballots.

Open primaries are somewhat unique. They allow any resident to pick up a ballot and cast a vote for whomever they wish, regardless of their personal party affiliation. Much like the General Election, you are free to choose who you want.

Many Independents find this system to be geared favorably towards them and typically more moderate politicians fare well in an open primary. Open primaries traditionally have better turnout since more people feel comfortable voting that day since they don’t have to officially declare that they belong to a party.

On the other hand, the Republican primary in Alaska is a closed primary. This means that only those voters who have officially declared their membership in the Republican Party may participate.

Closed primaries are a unique example of a political party’s interest in keeping active participation in the party going strong.

Unfortunately, this type of primary traditionally has lower turnout since only those who are officially declared as a member of that party are permitted to vote. Furthermore, many Independents find this system to be a disincentive to pay attention to the primary elections and therefore pay little mind to the race until the General Election.

Does the Alaska Primary matter?

I can confidently say that the primary matters a great deal. When a presidential primary comes to a state like Alaska and the voting will still determine the outcome, it is a rare opportunity for voters to have their voices heard nationally.

If you are a Democrat, your vote will contribute to your candidate’s delegate total when it comes to convention time. Even if your candidate doesn’t win Alaska, the better he or she does, the more delegates he or she will have to potentially be the nominee.

If you are a Republican, let’s face it, your vote is probably even more important in determining your party’s nominee. This race is still completely up for grabs. After February 5th is done and your vote is counted, we might see someone claim the mantle of front runner.

If you’re an Independent voter, you should feel equally enamored. Independents are widely known to be the heartbeat of the voting public whose opinions are frequently the basis for the ‘mandate’ that new presidents talk about during their first days. There should be no doubt that the candidates want your vote more than anything else. If you help in choosing either of the nominees, you’ll help shape the next 4 years of public policy. (see my other post on Why Super Tuesday Is So Important)

What resources are out there for me?

I’m afraid that not many will go this length in explaining the logic of our primary system to you, but I will point you in the right direction for better details on what to expect on Election Day.

Alaska Division of Elections

 

What’s Next?

Check back here for updates and bookmark the above pages. And be sure to leave a comment if you have any questions.

The Alabama Primary: A Voter’s Guide for Super Tuesday

The State of Alabama votes this year on Super Tuesday, February 5^th in what is called an ‘open primary’. I’ve noticed that previous posts on other state primaries have been extremely useful for readers, so I’d like to duplicate this for residents throughout the country. Each post is assembled on the Voter’s Guide page for your future reference.

Alabama residents are facing perhaps the most important presidential primary they have ever voted in. Both parties do not have a clear winner, and each campaign is shifting their focus to a long term outlook. In fact, we might see both the Democrats and Republicans fighting this one out until the summer.

2008 therefore is no longer about Iowa and New Hampshire. It’s about Super Tuesday and the states that follow. And Alabama sits in a position of power to determine who the nominee may eventually be.

In light of this, I feel it is necessary to share a quick history and voter’s guide to the most salient questions I’ve been asked about Alabama and Super Tuesday. A political professional for nearly 10 years, I hope that this guide helps to answer all of your questions. If you have further ones, feel free to leave a comment.

Can I vote in the Alabama Primary?

Only if you are a registered to vote prior to Tuesday, January 22nd in Baldwin and Mobile Counties or Friday January 25th in all other counties. At the time of this writing it looks like the deadline has passed for all of you who have not yet registered. Sorry kids.

Can Independents vote in the Alabama Primary?

Yes. When you go to the polls, you will be asked which ballot you want. You many only vote either the Democratic or Republican Primary, not both. If you are a registered Democrat or Republican you must vote in your respective primary.

Why can Independents vote in the Alabama Primary?

The State of Alabama votes in what is known as an ‘open primary’. This means that as long as you have registered to vote in time, you will be allowed to choose whether you want a Republican or Democratic ballot.

Open primaries are somewhat unique. They allow any resident to pick up a ballot and cast a vote for whomever they wish, regardless of their personal party affiliation. Much like the General Election, you are free to choose who you want.

Many Independents find this system to be geared favorably towards them and typically more moderate politicians fare well in an open primary. Open primaries traditionally have better turnout since more people feel comfortable voting that day since they don’t have to officially declare that they belong to a party.

Does the Alabama Primary matter?

I can confidently say that the primary matters a great deal. When a presidential primary comes to a state like Alabama and the voting will still determine the outcome, it is a rare opportunity for voters to have their voices heard nationally.

If you are a Democrat, your vote will contribute to your candidate’s delegate total when it comes to convention time. Even if your candidate doesn’t win Alabama, the better he or she does, the more delegates he or she will have to potentially be the nominee.

If you are a Republican, let’s face it, your vote is probably even more important in determining your party’s nominee. This race is still completely up for grabs. After February 5th is done and your vote is counted, we might see someone claim the mantle of frontrunner.

If you’re an Independent voter, you should feel equally enamored. Independents are widely known to be the heartbeat of the voting public whose opinions are frequently the basis for the ‘mandate’ that new presidents talk about during their first days. There should be no doubt that the candidates want your vote more than anything else. If you help in choosing either of the nominees, you’ll help shape the next 4 years of public policy. (see my other post on Why Super Tuesday Is So Important)

What resources are out there for me?

I’m afraid that not many will go this length in explaining the logic of our primary system to you, but I will point you in the right direction for better details on what to expect on Election Day.

Alabama Secretary of State’s Office

Official Guide (.pdf)

What’s Next?

Check back here for updates and bookmark the above pages. And be sure to leave a comment if you have any questions.

Why Super Tuesday Is So Important

The race for delegates and superdelgates is running at full steam and it’s making Super Tuesday the most anticipated day in presidential politics in over 20 years.

With 22 states holding Democratic primaries and 21 states holding Republican contests, February 5th not only offers a unique national perspective on the race before the November General Election, but candidates for both parties are also engaged in a pitched battle to secure as many delegates as possible on a day that offers potentially 2,075 delegates for Democrats and 1,081 for Republicans.

Let’s look at the Democratic race first. The Dems award their delegates on a proportional basis and it is because of this quirk in their rules that we may have an even tighter race for the nomination after the polls close on the 5th.

For instance, if Obama sweeps 20 out of the 22 states, it still does not knock Hillary out of the race (and vice versa, of course). Let’s say Obama were to gather 51% of the vote in any state, besting a Hillary 49%. Though she does not come in first place, Senator Clinton will still pick up a large share of the delegates. Proportional awards guarantee that both candidates split the delegates according to how well they do percentage-wise.

Each candidate knows that even if they can’t win a state’s primary, they must be competitive in every one. A second place finish still matters, especially if it’s close.

“It’s all about the delegates!” Mr. Obama said the other day, shouting his words to a crowd of supporters. His itinerary this week includes a visit to California but also to smaller states that his aides said offered opportunities for picking up delegates, whether or not he can win the state itself: Arizona, Kansas, Missouri and New Mexico.” Adam Nagourney writes in The New York Times

The good news for Obama, Clinton and (arguably) Edwards is that Super Tuesday isn’t win-or-go-home. A candidate must get 2,025 total delegates to clinch the nomination; in all likelihood, we’ll see half of the 2,075 up for grabs on Tuesday go to Clinton, and the other half go to Obama. They will both need to grab another 900 or so delegates until one can be crowned the winner.

Super Tuesday puts the inevitable within closer reach, but will not be the capstone to the primary season. We’re going to see this battle continue to different theaters.

On the Republican side, 1,081 delegates are up for grabs and, according to Real Clear Politics, eight of the states award their delegates on a winner-take-all basis. This means that if one candidate picks up all of these states, they will get a large chunk of the delegates that they need to close in on the nomination.

If only McCain or Romney could be so lucky. The rest of the 13 states voting in Republican primaries on Super Tuesday are awarded proportionally, and they are all going to be hotly contested races.

(You can take a look at the Republican and Democratic Primary Calendars as well as my Republican and Democratic Delegate and Superdelegate trackers to get a more detailed view of what states will be voting and what the horse race looks like so far.)

So with all of these arcane rules and over 20 different states voting on the 5th, why is Super Tuesday so important?

Candidates are quickly running out of money. At the beginning of the primary season (approximately a year ago) the ‘money primary’ was an early indicator of a candidates strength. The more that a candidate raised, the more that he or she seemed viable. While this may seem unfair to an excellent candidate who may not have the fund raising power as Hillary Clinton, in American politics, money has always equaled votes.

Matthew Mosk wrote in the Washington Post that

Voters in early-voting states experienced a blizzard of commercials and mailboxes jammed with literature, but those living in delegate-rich California might reach Election Day with little contact from the presidential candidates.

There is now a very unique phenomenon in this political race – money is running low just when candidates need it the most. It will be a real test of a candidate’s appeal to the average voter.

Furthermore, this is not a high pressure day for voters. With so many states voting, and many states not getting a visit from each of the candidates to remind them to vote, turnout may be low. This means that organization and getting out hardcore supporters to the polls is of paramount concern to any campaign. It will test their ability to organize, their strength on the ground and their overall likeability. In essence, candidates from both parties are really turning the screws on their organizations and the best ground operation will eventually prevail.

Lastly, Democratic voters, much like in 2004, are going to start looking for the most ‘electable’ candidate. Clinton and Obama are both fantastic options, but sooner or later, the calculus for party regulars will change. Primary voters will start asking themselves who best can win the General Election, and it will enter into their consideration starting February 5th and continue into the primaries afterwards.

For the Republicans, it’s all about what Mitt Romney is going to do with that pile of cash he has stashed away in his interest bearing accounts. I’ve written earlier on the Romney phenomenon and it still holds true. McCain is hampered by a fund raising machine that is slowly losing steam. He has spent much (if not all) of his money in the earlier primaries and does not have a lot of money to run the full fledged air war of commercials one normally would at this important point in the campaign. If Romney picks up half of the states, the Republicans are dragging this fight out as well.

So get your popcorn ready. From the seizure-inducing graphics on CNN and Fox, to the squealings of Chris Matthews on MSNBC, the nation-wide coverage on February 5th will be just as exciting as the beginning of 2008, only with more at stake. We might not have a clear winner, but this one is going to be the biggest thing we’ll have until November.

(related post: Delegates and Superdelegates Explained)

Superdelegate Tracker is Here

I’ve assembled a graphic for easy reference to the Superdelegate totals in the Democratic race. I still haven’t found reliable numbers for the Republican party’s ‘unpledged’ delegate total, so as soon as I find something credible, I have the graphic for you.

Just one program note. I have switched around the navigation bar at the top of the page. Delegate Trackers for both parties are on one page, the Primary Calendars are on one page and (finally) the Superdelegate Trackers will be as well. The site is growing fast and I’m very happy to be keeping up with demand. Enjoy.

See also Delegates and Superdelegates Explained

Romney Now the Strategic Front Runner

Former Governor Mitt Romney is preparing to infuse his personal fortune into his run for the White House. In so doing, he has become the strategic front runner in the Republican race.

Much to the dismay of independent vote-getters like Sen. John McCain and former Mayor Rudy Giuliani, the Florida primary is fast becoming an exercise in who can attract the most members of the conservative population. Running on his dyed in the wool Republican credentials (despite the difficulty he has encountered shaking off his flip-flopper image) has given the former Massachusetts Governor a fair shot at his first competitive primary and he is climbing fast in recent polls of Sunshine State Republicans.

“Four days before Florida’s high-stakes primary, polls show the race tight between McCain and Romney as Giuliani trails widely. The outcome of Tuesday’s contest will give one candidate a leg up for the GOP nomination and set the stage for a virtual national primary Feb. 5 [Super Tuesday]” Liz Sidoti writes in today’s Boston Globe.

It is not simply his appeal and perfect salt-and-pepper hair that is bringing Romney this sudden recognition as the man to beat on January 29th. He has a personal fortune to spend and in American politics, spending money means your message gets broadcast to voters. With McCain, Huckabee and Giuliani rapidly becoming resource-poor as a result of their early focus on Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina, it is only Mr. Romney who can inject much needed funds into his campaign coffers and keep his hopes alive.

Sen. John McCain has had a stunning comeback in just 6 months, with his campaign teetering on the edge of extinction just last summer. Replacing money with a streamlined campaign staff and a tireless candidate, the Senior Senator from Arizona has carved out a new calculus for winning (though we should never underestimate the torch of fame he has carried for 8 years as the ‘other’ candidate who ran – and beat – George W. Bush in 2000).

If McCain eeks out a victory in Florida, it will be on the fumes of cash rushing out of his campaign’s account. If he comes in second, he may only survive this race if early polls in Super Tuesday states put him ahead. If he’s leading, he can expect more campaign cash to continue the fight. If not, second place in Florida could sink him entirely.

Giuliani, once the national front-runner, was prescient enough to know that it was the later states that were going to be important. But Florida’s primary at the end of January was evidently too far off for his campaign to carry the necessary support he needs to stay competitive, and sinking more money into it will not carry him over to Super Tuesday. Like many others, I believe this is Giuliani’s make or break state. Lose here and the campaign is over.

In all, it is Romney’s fortune that is now at issue for his Republican competitors. His personal stack of money has made every state win-or-go-home for McCain, Giuliani and Huckabee. Only top finishes allow these candidates to continue to fund raise. For the founder of Bain Capital, he can settle for second in Florida and still throw his wealth into Super Tuesday media buys.

This makes Romney the strategic front runner because now everyone’s strategy revolves around him. He has made every delegate in every state a must-have.